Finding the Best Information about Europe

Every day US equity investors awaken and check futures trading and the latest news from Europe.  What might seem like small tidbits of information have major effects on the total market cap for US stocks.  It may not make sense, but it is the reality. In this environment, it is important to ask:  Whom do […]

Read More

Apple, Event Risk, and Market Timing

Owning any stock involves risk.  Sometimes it is the risk of specific events.  Apple Computer, Inc.  (AAPL) is a good example. The loss of Steve Jobs as CEO is obviously a negative for the stock.  He has been a visionary leader, and that has been recognized by the market. Precisely what does his loss mean, […]

Read More

Interpreting the St. Louis Fed Stress Index

While corporate earnings are the ultimate story, there are other important questions: Is there systemic risk? Does the current selling presage a 2008-style economic collapse? I have encouraged the use of objective, quantitative indicators to answer these questions.  In sharp contrast, many others make simple analogies and rely upon anecdotal evidence. To underscore the difficulty, […]

Read More