Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Q3 Earnings Disappoint?

Earnings season follows a familiar, four-step pattern. Preliminary — Analyst estimates are too optimistic, perhaps because they "go native." Confession –  Adjustment and warnings as companies "pre-announce," usually when the report will be a disappointment. Announcement — Actual results with explanations and outlook for the future.  There is an initial market reaction to the news. […]

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September Employment Report Preview

For many years I have written a regular monthly preview of the Employment Situation Report.  I have done extensive research on all of the methods and even visited the stat guys at the BLS to discuss their approach. My preview gives appropriate respect to the BLS, but also to the leading alternative methods. Why is […]

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