A Bull Market in Bad Predictions

Why does this happen whenever I try to take a few days off?  The market for dubious predictions has geared up in earnest! While on vacation I was watching the market (but without my customary TIVO), events developed exactly as I predicted.  I warned about signal and noise, the challenge to traders, and the opportunity […]

Read More

Weighing the Week Ahead: More Noise than Signal?

This week will provide the usual flow of data, some political posturing, and more than the typical quota of speeches. Expect more noise than signal! Congress resumes the lame-duck session.  There will be plenty of talk, followed breathlessly by the pundits. Lobbying groups are joining in to influence the fiscal cliff debate. The Fed is […]

Read More

Weighing the Week Ahead: Can You Find Opportunity this Thanksgiving?

We have a very interesting week ahead.  Despite the gravity of the issues, not much will be happening.  Congress, after convening for a few days, will be back on vacation recess.  There is not much news coming on the economic front.  Equity markets will be closed on Thursday and open only for the morning on […]

Read More

Debunking the 100% Recession Chart

Note to readers — It was either this topic or the fiscal cliff.  Since I have explained for many weeks that we will not be doing any cliff diving, I am choosing to take up the recession chart.  So much misleading commentary, and so little time! This chart is making the rounds, confirmation bias for […]

Read More