Circular Reasoning about Commodities

Can you beat the market? If you think so, you must not believe in the efficient market hypothesis.  Join Warren Buffett, who has famously stated that he would be standing on a corner selling pencils from a tin cup if markets were efficient. Most people who actively manage accounts — their own or others — […]

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Do Market Divergences Signal a Warning for Stock Investors?

In the wake of the FOMC meeting and the IPO hype, we face a week with little new information – the lull before earnings season. This sort of vacuum makes it difficult to predict the week ahead, but I have an interesting idea: This week will feature discussion about market divergences — gold, oil, small […]

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the Fed Change Course?

After a number of meetings where the FOMC announcement merely confirmed widespread expectations, this week’s result may be different. I expect everyone to be wondering, Will the Fed change course? Prior Theme Recap In my last WTWA I nervously suggested that there would be a surprising focus on individual stocks rather than macro factors. This […]

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Which Stocks are Best for the 2014 Homestretch?

In the absence of major economic news and events, the punditry usually tries to squeeze a little more juice out of old themes. The Fed reaction to the employment report will, no doubt, get some attention, but there are interesting corporate stories this week. Between the Apple iPhone announcement on Tuesday and the start of […]

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Time for Central Bankers to Unwind?

I could not resist the whimsical title. It is time for the annual Fed Symposium at Jackson Hole. This event, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, has historically been the scene for various important hints about policy changes. It is also an occasion for informal, face-to-face meetings among central bankers and economists […]

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