August Employment Report Preview

Each month we ask the question, "What change in payroll employment would be consistent with other economic data from the same time period (the middle of the prior month)? This is not a forecast, per se, since we do not posit any causal relationship among these variables.  They are all concomitant indicators of economic activity.  […]

Read More

Sell in September? Time for Reality!

Anyone paying attention to market news must know that September is the weakest month for stocks.  Mark Hulbert, one of our favorite writers, calls it The Cruelest Month.  He provides a table of returns, summarized as follows: Notice from the table that in all but one of the last 11 decades, September was a below-average […]

Read More

The Perils of Data-Fitting

We are delighted to see the Felix Salmon piece (highlighted by Abnormal Returns) reviewing the supposed relationship between Japan in the 90's and the current US market.  Check out the article to see the "great fit." Here at "A Dash" we have frequently exposed such  bogus relationships, even when the loud voices took the other […]

Read More