You need to have a system….

Quote of the Day Tadas Viskanta, …(Y)ou have to have a system that gets you in and out of the market based upon your own signals and not pay attention to what other people are saying. I could not agree more!  The quotation is from today's screencast at Abnormal Returns, a brief video that I […]

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How (not) to Build a Market Indicator: The Hindenburg Omen

A recurring theme at "A Dash" has been the seductive power of charts and trading systems.  Televised commercials from brokerage firms suggest that anyone with a computer can develop and test a system.  One of my articles about this danger was the story of a rookie trader, who failed despite his intelligence and system testing.  […]

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Light Switch Thinking

We have added another page to the right side panel. It deals with the gradual nature by which issues are solved by different policies and institutions. A failure to recognize these increments is a logical fallacy that Jeff calls "Light Switch Thinking." The page is posted at length below: I emphasize careful data analysis in […]

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Understanding the Employment Issue

Nearly everyone will agree that improving employment is crucial for economic growth.  Understanding the various employment indicators is important for any investor who is interested in fundamental analysis.  I write a monthly employment preview where I highlight forecasts using several different methods, including one developed by my team.  Here is a good recent example. In […]

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