Recession Expectations: An Important Anomaly

Where does one look for economic forecasting?  At "A Dash" we take the role of the educated consumer of forecasts.  We like to find the best information from the most reliable sources. During the last week we learned the recession expectations of distinctly different groups. Economists The Blue Chip Economic Indicators panel reduced the consensus […]

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Quantifying the Impact of Housing Problems — An Update

Recently we objected to a Doug Kass prediction that demand for new housing would fall by 50%.  Doug used an approach that identified potential foreclosures and eliminated entire classes of buyers.  He also cited secondary effects. Our Objection We suggested that the economy does not work this way.  A potential buyer may qualify for a […]

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Expensive Misconception: Economic Growth was Fueled by Debt

Individual investors must watch out for the latest piece of nonsense from those preaching doom and gloom. The statement is that the U.S. economic growth, particularly that of the last five years, has been artificially induced by debt.  The implication is that the economy will collapse like a house of cards when the debt must […]

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Painting the Tape

Any trader or investor must consider the use of stop loss orders.  Since circumstances may arise that suggest the original decision was wrong, one must be willing to exit the trade at some point or to face major losses.  This is an element of trading discipline. Placing a standing order risks a situation, especially in […]

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