Who is Overconfident?

I was struck by a recent article on "overconfidence" and how it hampers investment returns.  It is persuasive and suggests several different interesting themes. A Brief Digression Before turning to this theme, I would like to hit a few highlights. Thanks to Zack Miller, who kindly included me on his Super Bowl team of investment […]

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A Winning Investment Concept: De-Emphasize Transparency

It is quite natural to value transparency.  Understanding our world makes us more comfortable and confident. Continuing my discussion of good ideas for 2010 that did not quite fit into my overview article, I want to introduce an idea that does not get much attention. We all over-emphasize what is specific and known.  This focus […]

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The Alternate Universe: Not a Source of Investment Advice

I have been working on my preview pieces for 2010.  By nature, these are broad survey articles, even when you provide some argument and detail.  Some things get left on the cutting room floor, even though the ideas are important. I am going to do some short pieces mentioning — one at a time — […]

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