Some Crucial Facts about Energy

It is magical! Whatever the topic of current interest, there is no shortage of pundits. The current energy experts were recently (it seems like only yesterday) the leading authorities on the Fed, Europe, Ukraine, Libya, deflation, hyperinflation, stagflation, and of course, Ebola. The current crop of experts confidently talks about an oil glut, the motives […]

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Circular Reasoning about Commodities

Can you beat the market? If you think so, you must not believe in the efficient market hypothesis.  Join Warren Buffett, who has famously stated that he would be standing on a corner selling pencils from a tin cup if markets were efficient. Most people who actively manage accounts — their own or others — […]

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2013 in Review: Best of the “Silver Bullet” Awards

Regular readers of my WTWA series know that I occasionally give the Silver Bullet Award.  This recognizes writers who take it upon themselves to debunk dangerously misleading financial analysis. Their often thankless work reminds me of the Lone Ranger, whose adventures often upheld the notion that "…that all things change but truth, and that truth […]

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Is There a Stop Sign at the Old Market Top?

There is a psychological barrier at market tops. Think about this conundrum: By definition, a former top failed. That is how it got to be a top! A new high is the most bullish thing a market can do. Also by definition, since going higher means reaching and taking out old tops. As market averages […]

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