Ben Carlson Wins Silver Bullet: Great Article on Market Leaders

Ben Carlson recently wrote about current market leaders and the changes over time. This excellent work received some attention, but deserves even more. That is the purpose of the Silver Bullet Award.

For several years I have been highlighting work that represents strong, factual analysis and is not influenced by popularity or page views. It is like the “Lone Ranger” so I called it the Silver Bullet. Trying to get more recognition for these first-rate posts, I am now highlighting them in a new and separate series (rather than inclusion in my regular weekly updates). It is my hope that readers and past winners will help me in highlighting these important posts.

This Week’s Award – Ben Carlson

There are many current articles about narrow market leadership, excess influence of a few big stocks, and the lack of opportunity. Ben Carlson offers facts, clearly stated and explained. As a helpful starting point, he looks at the change in the top stocks over the last 35 years.

Read his full post for the conclusions. He emphasizes the healthy rotation at the top. This would probably be a surprise to most investors. It also directly questions prevailing wisdom.

Takeaways

This kind of post gets inadequate attention because many sources want to turn it into a trade – actionable advice. Others want something dramatic and scary. Here is my list of actions:

1. Investors should not be frightened about the general market because of allegations about leadership. What we see is normal and healthy.
   
2. Investors should probably be wary of chasing the biggest winners. Things change, and the opportunities might not be at the top of the market cap list.
   
3. The top companies – at least in recent years – have often fallen on hard times. Caution may be warranted since “trees do not grow to the sky.” Find future winners, not those already in top positions.
   

While this is not specific advice, it is a great background perspective.

Prior Winners

I began the Silver Bullet award more than three years ago. My hope is to give greater visibility and recognition to the winners. If bloggers and media sources are honest about wanting to get beyond the noise, they will join me in recognizing those who have written special posts. I also invite nominations. I expect about 20 awards each year, but I would be delighted if the community found more great candidates.

Below is a list of past winners. Getting past the overused “Hall of Fame” I am calling it the “Silver Bullet Band.” No one will be surprised to learn that Barry Ritholtz and Josh Brown lead the multiple winners, but there are others. New Deal Democrat has two wins and this is the second for Ben Carlson.