Thanks to Scott Rothbort for following up on some problems in statistical inference that we discussed last week. He came up with an imaginative strategy for presenting this concept to his class at Seton Hall, making the key questions quite relevant to their personal experience. It certainly gave me some ideas for presenting the key […]
Readers of "A Dash" are already familiar with Brett Steenbarger’s work from our past citations and references. His website generously includes many thoughtful and practical articles on trading, both from his 2003 book, The Psychology of Trading (order them from his site!), and his forthcoming book, Enhancing Trader Performance. He also finds time to produce […]
Who’s driving this bus? At "A Dash" we have noted that many market analysts are currently emphasizing the policy role of the Fed. In particular, they suggest that there is a "myth" about a soft landing (we prefer the Glide Path), supporting this view with a handful of cases stretching back in time to cover […]
At "A Dash" we favor methods where there is plenty of data and reliance on the fundamentals. This means looking at things like forward earnings and valuation where there are thousands of data points over twenty-five years. We did not buy the perma-bulls in 2000 and we will not sell based on the perma bears […]
Equity investors need to think about the chances of a recession. It is a standard risk/reward problem. Here are the questions: How much of a haircut would there be to earnings in a recession? How much of this is priced in? Do the PE ratios of economically sensitive companies reflect the possibilities? If a recession […]