Understanding the causal relationship is crucial in using any indicator. Lacy Hunt says that reducing M2 growth will slow the economy, but what does this have to do with the slope of the curve? Meanwhile, there was a lot of economic and media commentary today citing the same arguments I made yesterday. I’ll summarize below, […]
There is very strong support for the yield curve association, and I’ll link to some sources below. Barry’s analysis is more carefully qualified than that of most of the talking heads on CNBC. Until now, I have always believed in the yield curve as an indicator, and I well know the peril in asking whether […]
The higher volatility in these stocks makes no sense, but it comes with the territory. Here’s the story, and I’ll explain more below. Link: Energy ETFs Leak Oil. Bloomberg reports that Crude oil fell on expectations that milder temperatures in the U.S. will help preserve stockpiles of winter heating fuels that are above average levels. […]
Barry is like the farmer who thought the sun would no longer rise after his rooster died. He has observed a correlation and has inferred causation. The yield curve is an indicator of something, not a cause. Ask yourself this question: Would U.S. economic prospects be higher if Asian banks were less willing to buy our bonds?
We’re going to come up with a better definition of a contrarian trade that gives us a framework for analysis. In order to do that, it is helpful to look at the behavior of those accepted as charter members of the Contrarian Club. I nominate Doug Kass as a great example. I enjoy reading Kass’s […]