Market data has remained mixed. The weak Q1 GDP is not consistent with some of the most important measures. This week I expect pundits to be asking: Will the jobs report signal continued strength? Personal Note In response to reader interest I am trying to do an abbreviated WTWA when I am away. I will […]
Everyone interested in managing their own money ought to keep an old idiom in mind: if it seems too good to be true, it probably is. Unfortunately, greed is a powerful motivator. It’s tempting to see a new model with an incredible backtest and think this could be the answer. Experienced investors know that […]
Among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected. William of Occam The use of this principle is valuable, but not completely determinative in science. It often has an important application in investing. Let us consider two hypotheses. A method of valuing markets that relies upon backward-looking data, looks at replacement […]
As some market worries have been put to rest, there is a growing appetite for new ones. Pundits who say that things look OK are not very exciting. Last week we saw a shift in attention. Despite healthy earnings and good economic data, I expect pundits to be asking: What should investors be worried about? […]
Every trader has a method linked to a time frame. Our group has some new ideas, but the members are sticking to their guns on some positions. Long-term viewpoints emphasize an economic rebound, with materials and energy stocks leading. Short-term methods show opportunities in financial stocks and software. Review Our last Stock Exchange discussed contrarian […]