I have separated my long-running Investor section from Weighing the Week Ahead. My hope is to highlight ideas for the long-term investor. In my last investment post I applied the key concepts of the matrix to a range of investment ideas. We have been on target so far with what to avoid, and I expect […]
We have a big economic calendar with reports on inflation, small business optimism, retail sales, consumer confidence, and unemployment claims. I expect the data to continue occupation of the back seat. The election news is easy to write about, and financial media are taking the bait. Anything about the pandemic is newsworthy. Most important will […]
As I wrote in my Non-farm Payroll preview, the most important result to watch is the response rate. If the response rate is below the normal level, it might imply a higher level of business deaths. If this is true, the standard BLS methodology results in a significant overestimate of payroll jobs. And that is […]
There is something wrong with the monthly Payroll Employment Report. Economists were very surprised by the massive jump in jobs reported in May. They quickly changed their viewpoints about the economy as did important policymakers. The reasons are simple: Employment is the most important economic indicator – the foundation for income, spending, and government revenue. […]
It is a big week for economic data. There are many reports with the most attention on Friday’s Employment Situation data. We will also get auto sales, the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, construction spending, and factory orders. Weekly jobless claims continue to attract great interest and should. The corporate earnings story hits a peak […]