After the Fed

What will happen when the Fed is finished with the tightening cycle?  To get a dash of insight, take a look at the Fed Funds rate over time.

Fed_funds

When trying to predict something, you want to look at similar instances in the past.  There is a piece of research from a big-time firm that is making the rounds.  The statement is that the market will decline in the period six months and one year after the Fed is finished with the cycle.  The research looks at ALL past tightening cycles.

Is this correct?  Take a look at the chart and see what you think.

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