Stock Exchange: Finding Your Trading Sweet Spot
Our last Stock Exchange (two weeks ago) discussed diverse ideas from our experts, and also explained why I vetoed one of the recommendations. When trading using models, you can link directly to a platform if you do many trades and have a very short time frame. Otherwise you should not blindly follow the model. A human who understands the factors used by the model can identify when a situation is truly exceptional.
The current market environment is all about Trump – perhaps excessively so. Everyone worries about what companies are vulnerable to a tweet (which we will call a T-WOP, HT @corporatecommie). Each day includes more speculation about companies that might benefit from policy changes.
How should traders find a sweet spot in this environment?
This week includes both new ideas and reviews of some past highlights. Everyone can benefit from finding the trading model most relevant for your own style.
Let’s look at the ideas from our experts. As usual, I will conclude with a brief observation.
We have a new (free) service to subscribers to our Felix/Oscar update list. You can suggest three favorite stocks and sectors. We report regularly on the “favorite fifteen” in each category– stocks and sectors—as determined by readers. Sign up with email to “etf at newarc dot com”. Suggestions and comments are welcome. In the tables below, green is a “buy,” yellow a “hold,” and red a “sell.” Each category represents about 1/3 of the underlying universe. Please remember that these are responses to reader requests, not necessarily stocks and sectors that we own. Sign up now to vote your favorite stock or sector onto the list!
This Week—Finding Your Trading Sweet Spot
This week I’m buying good ol’ U.S.A. Macys (M). This stock probably needs no introduction, main street retail store.
This chart strikes me as a great money-making opportunity. My major concern is that this stock keeps making lower lows, but in the meantime it can have some terrific rallies. I see no reason it can’t get back to the mid-30’s. It’s a little comforting to know that there are 18 analyst holds on this stock and their target price is STILL 36. That is consistent with what the charts are telling me.
I’m buying here with tight stop, 29.25, and looking for a move back into the mid-30s. Giving me a nice risk/reward setup.
J: I agree with you about ignoring the analyst ratings. I use it as a contra-indicator. Did you read that recent WSJ article?
H: You know that I do not read! I reach great conclusions from looking at charts. You humans read, but mostly to reaffirm your existing biases.
J: I am delighted that our clients caught this at a lower price, but do you realize the stock was up over $1.50 today?
H: No. I am enjoying the beach in Mexico. I sent in my pick, but that is like working overtime.
J: Oscar’s turf accountant would call your choice “past posting.”
H: Sorry. You are the one who set the schedule for Thursdays. I made the pick earlier, and it is still a good buy.
J: There is a rumor of a possible takeover. Did you know about that?
H: No. I just know a great rebound chart when I see one.
J: Are you going to have any trouble returning from Mexico? The U.S. is taking a hard look at those returning from other countries.
H: My papers are all in order. I’ll be back in the office in a week or so.
I admit it. I still have no new picks. We do not have the fresh, strongly-trending stocks that I prefer. I’m still holding most of my most recent picks, and I have room for one more buy.
J: Maybe you could give us an update on one of your current holdings.
A: Fair enough. I recommended United Rentals (URI) on 12/22, after buying it myself a few days earlier.
J: Isn’t this one of your few picks where I agreed?
A: Yes, I seem to remember that you said the pick was OK, but you did not own it yourself. I have held this one through a month or so of sideways movement, but now it’s starting to pay off in a big way. We’ve seen an increase of roughly 20% in the last two weeks. That means it’s about time for me to hop off this one (as fun of a ride as it’s been).
J: That certainly worked well. How are you doing overall?
A: Not as well as the fussy guy and the dog, but that will change soon. I think I am Vince’s favorite.
I will once again begin with my responses to reader votes for the favorites list.
My list provides rankings within each zone, as well as the basics about buy, hold, and sell. The list includes the top overall vote getters from our (free) subscription list as well as some new requests I got during the week.
J: The list has some interesting changes. I see that AAPL (which we own) is still in “hold” territory despite the major rally after its earnings report.
F: My ratings came before the report. How about AMZN? That did not do so well. My approach is geared to the long term, usually more than one year.
J: Fair enough. Do you have something new for us this week?
J: What? I took a long weekend, but the rest of you were supposed to keep working. Only Holmes was on vacation.
F: I worked, but there are no new choices. Patience is called for.
J: Are you trying to get dropped from the weekly discussion?
F: You would not dare! My performance leads the group. In addition, I provide updated information to my many fans. You should be giving me a raise. I am on the job while the dog is in Mexico.
J: OK, we’ll let the readers decide whether they still want your opinions.
My pick for this week is the Defense sector, shown here by the SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR). I liked this one back in early December too – but I got out before the downslide. Now that the price has had a few weeks to level out, I feel more comfortable getting back into this sector.
For my next “investment” – I’ll bet that Belichick can’t put together a defense to stop the Falcons. But that really is another subject…
Here are my ratings for the top reader interests. Keep the questions coming. My sectors are aggressive, but have less risk than Felix’s picks. I avoid the bad news from random, single-stock moves.
J: Interesting. Do you see evidence of that?
O: I hear about it. People are very worried about something called “tweets” that seem to hit their stocks for no reason. Playing sectors reduces that risk.
J: Interesting. The Tweeter-in-Chief has T-Wopped a few of the defense stocks, but most still believe in his support for higher defense spending.
O: I only follow sports tweets, but I know which sectors have legs, and which will fail down the stretch.
J: You really like the Falcons?
O: My week’s pay is on the line!
Background on the Stock Exchange
Each week Felix and Oscar host a poker game for some of their friends. Since they are all traders they love to discuss their best current ideas before the game starts. They like to call this their “Stock Exchange.” (Check it out for more background). Their methods are excellent, as you know if you have been following the series. Since the time frames and risk profiles differ, so do the stock ideas. You get to be a fly on the wall from my report. I am the only human present, and the only one using any fundamental analysis.
The result? Several expert ideas each week from traders, and a brief comment on the fundamentals from the human investor. The models are named to make it easy to remember their trading personalities. Each week features a different expert or stock.
If you want an opinion about a specific stock or sector, even those we did not mention, just ask! Put questions in the comments. Address them to a specific expert if you wish. Each has a specialty. Who is your favorite? (You can choose me, although my feelings will not be hurt very much if you prefer one of the models).
The current trading environment is treacherous. Many frustrated traders are bailing out. Or have blown out. Political opinions about policy have proved to be a dangerous foundation for trading and investing.
Our models provide a range of diverse ideas, all successful. Pick one that you like. Use it as a counterpoint for your own method. And keep control of position size and risk.
The Stock Exchange does not have all the answers, but it provides good ideas and a stimulus for your own trading.